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Press Release

Decision Resources Group Projects Explosive Growth of the Alzheimer's Disease Market if Emerging Agents Can Beat the Odds and Deliver Phase III Success

Decision Resources Group
Posted on: 30 Nov 17

BURLINGTON, Mass., Nov. 28, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources Group (DRG) announces the publication of its latest forecast for Alzheimer's disease (AD) pharmacotherapies, and projects that today's $3 billion-dollar market could exceed $25 billion by 2026 with the assumed launch of six new treatments, among them the first potential disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). Such growth will be fueled by the combination of strong market demand, a large and growing prevalent population, expected increases in diagnosis and treatment, and premium pricing. Although a high rate of pipeline attrition means this future is far from guaranteed—indeed, potentially, no new therapies could launch during our forecast horizon—DRG's model underscores both the enormity of the unmet need that exists in AD and the commercial opportunity that awaits any novel drugs that can launch into the space, where failure has prevailed for more than a decade.

Other key findings from the DRG's Disease Landscape & Forecast report in Alzheimer's Disease:

Growth in our ten-year forecast will be driven primarily by the projected launch of four high-priced, amyloid-targeted DMTs beginning in 2021: Biogen/Neuroimmune/Eisai's aducanumab, Biogen/Eisai's elenbecestat, Roche/Genentech/AC Immune's crenezumab, and Merck's verubecestat. While DRG's current forecast assumes the launch of only these DMTs based on our assessment of clinical trial design and assumptions around their outcomes, other investigational DMTs also have the potential to launch by 2026.

We estimate the landmark launch of the first DMT for AD will drive measurable growth in diagnosed and drug-treated patients in the target pre-AD and mild AD populations as vigilance and awareness improves, biomarker use expands, and promotion and education drive more patients to seek consultation and care.

Assuming Phase III success, we forecast Avanir/Otsuka's AVP-786 to become the first agent approved for the treatment of agitation in AD, followed by Lundbeck/Otsuka's brexpiprazole, which will begin a third Phase III trial in 2018. We project the two products to earn greater than $2 billion in combined sales in 2026. Several other anti-agitation agents advancing through the pipeline could intensify competition in this budding market segment.

Comments from DRG Senior Business Insights Analyst Tamara Blutstein, Ph.D.:

"There is now a concerning lack of procognitive symptomatic therapies in development for AD, which were once seen as key to bridging a development gap as the market awaits the first DMT. The latest failures in this arena reported by Lundbeck and Axovant leave little hope of a near-term advance for AD patients."

"The challenge facing DMT developers is a daunting one: test the right drug, in the right patients, at the right time, at the right dose. While the failure of verubecestat in the EPOCH trial, presented at CTAD in early November, reiterates that early intervention is key, it remains to be seen if ongoing prevention trials in at-risk, asymptomatic patients ultimately represent the best—or only—path towards disease modification in AD."

For more information on purchasing this report, please visit our website.

About Decision Resources Group
DRG, a subsidiary of Piramal Enterprises Ltd., is the premier source for global healthcare data and market intelligence. A trusted partner for over 20 years, DRG helps companies competing in the global healthcare industry make informed business decisions. Organizations committed to the developing and delivering life-changing therapies to patients rely on DRG's in-house team of expert healthcare analysts, data scientists, and consultants for critical guidance. DRG products and services, built on extensive data assets and delivered by experts, empower organizations to succeed in complex healthcare markets.

Media contact:

Decision Resources Group
Stephanie Cooper
(212) 414-7570

Editor's Details

Mike Wood

Last updated on: 30/11/2017

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