Original-Research: MagForce AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu MagForce AG
Unternehmen: MagForce AG
Anlass der Studie: Research Note
Kursziel: 13.50 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31/12/2020
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
Half-year figures in line with our expectations, target price and rating
As stated in our most recently published research study (see study dated
10/09/2019), the operating performance of MagForce AG is currently marked
by the expansion of the commercialisation of NanoTherm technology to treat
glioblastoma in Europe and by the progress made in gaining approval for
treating prostate cancer in the USA.
The values achieved in the first six months of 2019 are in line with our
expectations. Based on the European roll-out and the continuing development
expected with regard to the approval of the MagForce technology for
prostate cancer treatment in the USA, we expect an increase in revenue from
the coming financial year onwards, however, significant revenues will most
likely only be generated from 2021.
According to our expectations, the Company should first benefit from the
European roll-out. In addition to the further regional expansion of the
range of treatments in Germany (Zwickau), the newly opened treatment centre
in Lublin (Poland), where the mobile NanoTherm(R) technology was
commissioned in April 2019, plays an important role here. Given the fact
that more than 40% of the enquiries received in 2018 from over 700 patients
came from this region, it is understandable that the Polish market should
be addressed accordingly. Proximity to the treatment centre is essential to
such patients because glioblastoma is a rapidly progressing disease
associated with severe mobility restrictions. Although cover for treatment
costs continues to accelerate in Poland, the current focus is on the self-
financing of treatment costs (including crowdfunding). Additional market
entries in Italy and Spain currently feature in the company's concrete
In Germany, too, cover for costs is expected to be increased, thus
increasing the number of treatments performed. MagForce AG can already
report its first success in this respect. Previously, individual patient
costs had been covered, but in future, due to the increasing number of
cases, treatment centres may be able to negotiate their budgets with the
health insurance funds. However, the issue of cost coverage will continue
to be explored in the coming financial years.
We assume that the registration trial on prostate treatment in the USA,
which will include up to 120 patients, will be completed in the coming
financial year. In this indication area, which is characterised by a
significantly higher population, the first significant revenues should be
generated from the financial year 2021 onwards.
As there are no changes in our assumptions from our last research study
(see research study dated 10/09/2019), we confirm our revenue and earnings
forecasts. We continue to assume an increase in commercial treatment
revenues for Europe from the financial year 2020 onwards and an increase in
revenues for the glioblastoma indication from 2021.
Our expectations show that the break-even point should be achieved across
all operating levels when the strong increase in revenue is achieved after
the approval for prostate cancer treatment in the USA in financial year
On the basis of the unchanged forecasts and the unchanged DCF valuation
model, we confirm the stock price target of EUR13.50. Based on the current
share price, we therefore maintain our BUY rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
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Date and time of completion: 28/11/2019 (9:21 am)
Date and time of first distribution: 28/11/2019 (11:30 pm)
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