IMPACT CKD model projects up to 16.5% of the population across eight countries to suffer from chronic kidney disease by 2032

IMPACT CKD model projects up to 16.5% of the population across eight countries to suffer from chronic kidney disease by 2032

A new modelling analysis by AstraZeneca, IMPACT CKD, forecasts up to 16.5% of the population across eight countries will suffer from chronic kidney disease (CKD) by 2032, including a rise of up to 59.3% in advanced-stage.1 Presented at the 2024 ISN World Congress of Nephrology (WCN’24) in Buenos Aires, the study highlights an urgent and growing global health crisis with profound economic and environmental implications.1 IMPACT CKD is the first study to examine and forecast the vast, multi-dimensional impact of CKD over a 10-year time horizon across eight countries — the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, China, and Australia.1

The research estimates nearly 125 million people across these countries will suffer from advanced CKD by 2032, marking a 25% increase since 2022 when the model began.1 The economic toll of renal replacement therapy, including dialysis and transplant, is anticipated to reach approximately $186 billion, and dialysis requirements are expected to surge by over 75%, contributing significantly to healthcare's carbon footprint — equivalent to adding approximately 17.3 million cars' worth of CO2 emissions.1

Ruud Dobber, Executive Vice-President, BioPharmaceuticals Business Unit, AstraZeneca, highlights: “Our modelling emphasises the enormous impact CKD could have on patients, economies and the environment. But this future is not inevitable. At AstraZeneca, we are committed to working with global policy makers to reduce the world-wide impact of end-stage CKD and drive earlier diagnosis and treatment to slow or halt progression of disease.”

The IMPACT CKD study is part of AstraZeneca’s Accelerating Change Together (ACT) for CKD initiative, aiming to improve understanding and outcomes of CKD worldwide. Through the ACT on CKD programme, AstraZeneca, alongside the Global Patient Alliance for Kidney Health (GloPAKH), has launched ‘Make the Change for Kidney Health’ campaign. This initiative seeks to elevate CKD on the global policy agenda, advocating for comprehensive and effective disease management strategies to combat this escalating health challenge.

Notes

CKD  
CKD is a serious, progressive condition defined by decreased kidney function (shown by reduced eGFR or markers of kidney damage, or both, for at least three months).2 Nearly 850 million people worldwide are affected by CKD,3 with the majority undiagnosed.2 The most common causes of CKD are diabetes, hypertension and glomerulonephritis.4 CKD is associated with significant patient morbidity and an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events, such as heart failure (HF), which drives premature death.5 In its most severe form, known as kidney failure, kidney damage and deterioration of kidney function have progressed to the point where dialysis or kidney transplantation are required.6 The majority of patients with CKD will die from CV causes before reaching kidney failure.7 

IMPACT CKD
IMPACT CKD is an innovative study that incorporates a sophisticated simulation model to unveil a holistic projection of the extensive impacts of chronic kidney disease (CKD) across clinical, economic, societal, and environmental dimensions.1 This landmark analysis delivers the first-ever, 10-year outlook on the impact of CKD, providing insight for the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, China, and Australia.1 Emphasizing the critical importance of early CKD detection and treatment, the study offers strategic insights aimed at substantially mitigating the disease's multi-dimensional burden.1

ACT on CKD
ACT on CKD is a programme by AstraZeneca to transform kidney health through partnerships aimed at reducing the proportion of patients progressing to kidney failure by 20% by 2025. To realise this ambition, the programme supports initiatives that aim to raise awareness of the burden of CKD and its consequences, expand early detection and drive optimisation of treatment to improve patient outcomes. To further support people at risk of CKD, we also look to achieve sustainable change through health policy reforms. 

We want to provide patients, healthcare providers (HCPs) and decision makers with the necessary information to drive change. As a part of our broader contribution to building knowledge around CKD we continue to generate evidence to help advance clinical practice: DISCOVER-CKD shows a lack of urine albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) testing and adherence to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines; REVEAL-CKD shows the extent of the gaps in early detection of CKD and the clear benefits of diagnosing early; INSIDE-CKD shows the unsustainable future burden of CKD and potential benefits to the healthcare system of improved management; PACE-CKD shows CKD is associated with a poorer quality of life not only for patients but also their carers; and IMPACT CKD provides modelling of the future CKD burden for public health policy planning, including societal and environmental impact.

The World Congress of Nephrology (WCN)
The World Congress of Nephrology (WCN) is the annual scientific, educational, and networking meeting of the International Society of Nephrology (ISN).8 The ISN is a global professional association dedicated to advancing kidney health worldwide since 1960 through education, grants, research, and advocacy.8

AstraZeneca in CVRM
Cardiovascular, Renal and Metabolism (CVRM), part of BioPharmaceuticals, forms one of AstraZeneca’s main disease areas and is a key growth driver for the Company. By following the science to understand more clearly the underlying links between the heart, kidneys, liver and pancreas, AstraZeneca is investing in a portfolio of medicines for organ protection by slowing or stopping disease progression, and ultimately paving the way towards regenerative therapies. The Company’s ambition is to improve and save the lives of millions of people, by better understanding the interconnections between CVRM diseases and targeting the mechanisms that drive them, so we can detect, diagnose and treat people earlier and more effectively. 

AstraZeneca
AstraZeneca (LSE/STO/Nasdaq: AZN) is a global, science-led biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialisation of prescription medicines in Oncology, Rare Diseases, and BioPharmaceuticals, including Cardiovascular, Renal & Metabolism, and Respiratory & Immunology. Based in Cambridge, UK, AstraZeneca operates in over 100 countries and its innovative medicines are used by millions of patients worldwide. Please visit astrazeneca.com and follow the Company on social media @AstraZeneca

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References

1. Rao N, et al. Multidimensional Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease in Eight Countries: Insights from the IMPACT CKD Study. Presented at: WCN 2024, 13-16 April 2024, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

2. Bikbov B, et al. Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet. 2020;395(10225):709-733.

3. Jager KJ, et al. A single number for advocacy and communication-worldwide more than 850 million individuals have kidney diseases. Nephrol Dial Transplant. 2019;34(11):1803-1805.

4. National Kidney Foundation [Internet]. Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD); [cited 2024 March 25]. Available from: https://www.kidney.org/atoz/content/about-chronic-kidney-disease.

5. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [Internet]. Chronic Kidney Disease: Common - Serious - Costly; [cited 2024 March 25]. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/kidneydisease/prevention-risk/CKD-common-serious-costly.html.

6. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [Internet]. Chronic kidney disease in the United States; 2021 [cited 2024 March 25]. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/kidneydisease/pdf/Chronic-Kidney-Disease-in-the-US-2021-h.pdf.

7. Briasoulis A, et al. Chronic kidney disease as a coronary artery disease risk equivalent. Curr Cardiol Rep. 2013;15(3):340.

8. WCS [Internet]. ISN World Congress of Nephrology (WCN’24) Abstract Embargo Policy [cited 2024 March 25]. Available from: https://www.theisn.org/wcn/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2023/06/WCN24-Abstract-Embargo-Policy.pdf.

Veeva ID: Z4-63620
Date of Preparation: April 2024