Evaluate Releases Look into Pharma Market in 2026

Report projects market growth but investors remain in cautious recovery mode 

LONDON – [7 January 2026] – Evaluate, the leading provider of market insights for the pharmaceutical industry, today released its 2026 Preview report, providing market forecasts for biopharma in 2026.

The 2026 Preview, drawn from Evaluate Pharma and Evaluate Omnium, states that while biopharma has regained momentum after years of tough financing climate and sparse investor support, the market will remain in cautious recovery mode in 2026. Investor excitement is translating into big valuations, but they need the evidence to confidently back R&D.

“M&A drove the market’s rise at the end of 2025. In October and November, we saw $36bn deployed in biotech buyouts,” said Daniel Chancellor, Vice President of Thought Leadership at Norstella. “We will see more M&A action in 2026 as the approaching patent cliff requires further decisive action to navigate.”

All eyes will be on Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly as market leaders in the incretin space. Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro is forecast to steal Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic’s title as the top incretin brand this year, with consensus forecast sales of over $25bn.

Merck & Co’s Keytruda is forecast to remain in its position as the top-selling drug brand in 2026, achievable only with the addition of a new subcutaneously administered formulation of the cancer blockbuster. 

The report highlights therapeutic areas, potential drug launches and market conditions expected to shape biopharma in 2026. Key findings include:

• Immunology and inflammation, targeted oncology, metabolic disease, and RNA-based therapies are expected to remain the most active areas for dealmaking
• 57 novel drugs are predicted to launch in the US in 2026, with projected fifth-year sales for this cohort reaching almost $50bn.
• The looming patent cliff will start to affect several branded drug makers in 2025, with big blockbusters forecasted to fade, including Bristol Myers Squibb’s Eliquis and Pomalyst, and Novartis’ Entresto.

“After four years of challenges and uncertainties, such as interest rates, pricing, tariffs, and legislation, optimism is back in the sector,” said Chancellor. “Recent caution suggests a market boom is in no one’s interest, although selective investments in the strongest, most-promising developments will be the focus, and we’re expecting a busy year of investment and pipeline development.”

Additional analysis is included in the full report, which is available here, and a webinar featuring discussion and insight from the report will take place on 22 January at 10am EST/3pm GMT. Registration is available here.